Policy Brief - Avs in the Pacific Northwest: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Time of Automation

Abstract

The transportation sector accounts for the largest portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to all other sectors, and GHGs are once again on the rise. At the same time, new mobility technologies are being introduced and fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are anticipated to be deployed, at least to varying extents, within 5-10 years. (Waymo, Google’s self-driving project, is already operating a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, AZ with a fleet of AVs.) AVs have the potential to improve safety, reduce congestion, and increase mobility— but they could also increase congestion, increase vehicle miles/ kilometers traveled (VMT/VKT), and erode transit, walk, and bike mode share, exacerbating existing conditions. The cities of Portland, OR; Seattle, WA; and Vancouver, BC have adopted climate action plans with the goal of dramatically reducing GHG emissions. This policy brief is intended to help the three cities better understand how AVs may help or hinder them in achieving their goals, and what recommended actions to take at this critical moment in time. Research on AVs suggests that they are likely to increase VMT/VKT and congestion without policy intervention. AVs may also compete with transit since an AV trip may be cheaper than a ridehailing (e.g., Uber and Lyft) trip today as the labor costs associated with paying drivers will be dramatically reduced or eliminated.