Browsing by Subject "Macroeconomics and monetary economics"
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Adam, Klaus; Evans, George W., 1949; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, March 17, 2003)[more][less]Adam, Klaus Evans, George W., 1949 Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 20031215T18:52:18Z 20031215T18:52:18Z 20030317 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/127 Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the highinflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the highinflation steady state. The hyperinflationary paths are stable under learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data. However, in an economy populated by a mixture of agents, some of whom only have access to lagged data, stable inflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high. 258,760 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200331 Mathematical and quantitative methods Mathematical methods and programming Existence and stability conditions of equilibrium Microeconomics Expectations Macroeconomics and monetary economics Information and uncertainty Speculations Search, learning, and information Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles Price level Inflation (Finance) Deflation (Finance) Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable? Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, July 12, 2003)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 20031215T19:08:19Z 20031215T19:08:19Z 20030712 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/128 Using New Keynesian models, we compare Friedman's kpercent money supply rule to optimal interest rate setting, with respect to determinacy, stability under learning and optimality. First we review the recent literature: openloop interest rate rules are subject to indeterminacy and instability problems, but a properly chosen expectationsbased rule yields determinacy and stability under learning, and implements optimal policy. We show that Friedman's rule also can generate equilibria that are determinate and stable under learning. However, computing the mean quadratic welfare loss, we find for calibrated models that Friedman's rule performs poorly when compared to the optimal interest rate rule. 320,062 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200330 Macroeconomics and monetary economics Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles Monetary policy Central banking, and the supply of money and credit Monetary policy (Targets, instruments, and effects) Price level Inflation (Finance) Deflation (Finance) Friedman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy Working Paper

Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949 (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, May 16, 2003)[more][less]Branch, William A. Evans, George W., 1949 20031211T19:46:23Z 20031211T19:46:23Z 20030516 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/126 We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification Equilibrium is an equilibrium stochastic process in which agents forecast optimally given their choices, with the forecasting model parameters and predictor proportions endogenously determined. For appropriate conditions on the exogenous driving process and the degree of feedback of expectations, the Misspecification Equilibrium will exhibit Intrinsic Heterogeneity. With Intrinsic Heterogeneity more than one misspecified model receives positive weight in the distribution of predictors across agents, even in the neoclassical limit in which only the most successful predictors are used. 502,648 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200332 Mathematical and quantitative methods Macroeconomics and monetary economics Expectations Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles Speculations Mathematical methods and programming Existence and stability conditions of equilibrium Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, October 11, 2003)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 McGough, Bruce 20031211T19:18:28Z 20031211T19:18:28Z 20031011 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/124 The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylortype interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some specifications of the interest rate rule, raising the possibility of increased economic fluctuations due to a dependence of expectations on extraneous sunspots. Separately, recent work by a number of authors has shown that sunspot equilibria previously thought to be unstable under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In this paper we generalize the common factor technique, used in this analysis, to examine standard monetary models that combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate both lagged and expected inflation in the Phillips Curve, and both expected and inertial elements in the policy rule. We find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises. 1,097,683 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200334 Macroeconomics and monetary economics Search, learning, and information Macroeconomics and monetary economics Microeconomics Monetary policy (Central banking, and the supply of money and credit) Monetary policy (Targets, instruments, and effects) Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles Business fluctuations Cycles Information and uncertainty Expectations Speculations Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951; Marimon, Ramon, 1953 (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, October 25, 2002)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 Marimon, Ramon, 1953 20030812T20:41:49Z 20030812T20:41:49Z 20021025 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/72 We develop a monetary model with flexible supply of labor, cash in advance constraints and government spending financed by seignorage. This model has two regimes. One regime is conventional with two steady states. The other regime has a unique steady state which can be determinate or indeterminate. In the latter case there exist sunspot equilibria which are stable under adaptive learning, taking the form of noisy finite state Markov processes at resonant frequencies. For a range of parameter values, a sufficient reduction in government purchases will eliminate these equilibria. 0 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;20015 Indeterminacy Learnability Expectational stability Endogenous fluctuations Seignorage (Finance) Mathematical and quantitative methods Microeconomics Macroeconomics and monetary economics Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a CashinAdvance Economy Working Paper
Now showing items 15 of 5