Unexpected Utility: Experimental Tests of Five Key Questions about Preferences over Risk
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Authors
Andreoni, James
Harbaugh, William
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Publisher
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
Abstract
Experimental work on preferences over risk has typically considered choices over
a small number of discrete options, some of which involve no risk. Such experiments
often demonstrate contradictions of standard expected utility theory. We reconsider
this literature with a new preference elicitation device that allows a continuous choice
space over only risky options. Our analysis assumes only that preferences depend on
the probability p and prize x; U = u(p; x): We then allow subjects to choose p and x
continuously on a linear budget constraint, r1p + r2x = m, so that all prospects with
a nonzero expected value are risky. We test five of the most importantly debated
questions about risk preferences: rationality, prospect theory asymmetry, the independence axiom, probability weighting, and constant relative risk aversion. Overall, we find that the expected utility model does unexpectedly well.
Description
28 p.