Intuitive numbers guide decisions
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Date
2008-12
Authors
Peters, Ellen
Slovic, Paul
Vastfjall, Daniel
Mertz, C. K.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Abstract
Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills) consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations) also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a) perceived differences between numbers, b) the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c) the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.
Description
17 pages
Keywords
Decision making, Numerical cognition, Numeracy, Proportional reasoning, Individual differences
Citation
Peters, E., Slovic, P., Västfjall, D., & Mertz, C. K. (2008). Intuitive numbers guide decisions. Judgment and Decision Making, 3, 619-635. Retrieved December 30, 2008, from http://journal.sjdm.org/8827/jdm8827.pdf