The Cohort-Size Sample-Size Conundrum: An Empirical Analysis and Assessment Using Homicide Arrest Data from 1960 to 1999
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Date
2003-03
Authors
O'Brien, Robert M.
Stockard, Jean
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer
Abstract
A number of studies use the Age–Period–Cohort Characteristic (APCC) model to
address the impact of cohort related factors on the age distribution of homicide
offending. Several of these studies treat birth cohorts as spanning several years, an
operationalization that most closely matches tenets of cohort theory, yet sharply
reduces the number of observations available for analysis. Other studies define
birth cohorts as those born within a single year, an operationalization that is
theoretically problematic, but provides many more observations for analysis. We
address the sample size problem by applying a time-series-cross-section model
(panel model) with age-period-specific homicide arrest data from the United States
for each year from 1960 to 1999, while operationalizing cohorts as five-year birth
cohorts. Our panel model produces results that are very similar to those obtained
from traditional multiyear APCC models. Substantively, the results provide a
replication of work showing the importance of relative cohort size and cohort
variations in family structure for explaining variations in age-period-specific
homicide rates. The additional observations provided by our approach allow us to
examine these relationships over time, and we find substantively important
changes. The year-by-year estimates of the age distribution of homicide offending
help us to examine the model during the epidemic of youth homicide.
Description
32 pages
Keywords
Pooled Time Series, Age-Period-Cohort Characteristic Models, Age Distribution of Homicide, Cohort Effects, Epidemic of Youth Homicide
Citation
O’Brien, R. M., & Stockard, J. (2003). The Cohort-Size Sample-Size Conundrum: An Empirical Analysis and Assessment Using Homicide Arrest Data from 1960 to 1999. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 19(1), 1- 32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022526511321