Recent Submissions

  • Econometrics of the forward premium puzzle 

    Chakraborty, Avik, 1975-; Haynes, Stephen E., 1945- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-09-15)
    This paper explores from a new perspective the forward premium puzzle, i.e., why a regression of the change in the future spot exchange rate on the forward premium paradoxically yields a coefficient that is frequently ...
  • The Empirical Trap of Sign Reversals with Equality Restrictions 

    Haynes, Stephen E., 1945- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-01-15)
    This note explores the insidious empirical trap posed by two common equality restrictions in regression analysis. The trap is that restricted coefficients can lie outside the interval of unrestricted coefficients and even ...
  • ‘Guns and Butter’ in U.S. Presidential Elections 

    Haynes, Stephen E., 1945-; Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2004-09-20)
    Previous models of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential elections emphasize economic growth and price stability, the role of parties and incumbency, and pre-election expectations for the future. Despite the closeness of ...