Urbanism Next Reports

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Browsing Urbanism Next Reports by Author "Carlton, Ian"

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    Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies on City Form and Development
    (Urbanism Next, 2020-01) Howell, Amanda; Tan, Huijun; Brown, Anne; Schlossberg, Marc; Karlin-Resnick, Josh; Lewis, Rebecca; Anderson, Marco; Larco, Nico; Tierney, Gerry; Carlton, Ian; Kim, James; Steckler, Becky
    Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a near future reality and the implications of AVs on city development and urban form, while potentially widespread and dramatic, are not well understood. In addition, there are other fundamentally disruptive technological forces undergoing simultaneous rapid development and deployment, including the introduction of new mobility technologies and the associated paradigm shift to thinking of mobility as a service, as well as the continued growth of e-commerce and the related rise in goods delivery. The purpose of this report is to examine how these forces of change are impacting, or will likely impact transportation, land use, urban design, and real estate, and what the implications may be for equity, health, the economy,the environment, and governance. Our aim was to identify key research areas that will assist in evidence-based decision making for planners, urban designers, and developers to address this critical paradigm shift. We identified key research questions in land use, urban design, transportation, and real estate that will rely on the expertise of these disciplines and lay the foundation for a research agenda examining how AVsand new mobility may impact the built environment. This report describes the first order impacts, or the broad ways that the form and function of cities are already being impacted by the forces of change identified above.
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    Potential Impacts of Autonomous Vehicle Deployment on Parking and Development
    (University of Oregon, 2023-02) Larco, Nico; Howell, Amanda; Leavitt, Mason; Carlton, Ian; Kim, James
    An often-claimed benefit of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment has been its reduction on parking demand and the potential impact this could have on development. If demand for parking is drastically reduced by the deployment of AVs, the logic is that developers would need to build far less parking than is required today by code and/or is deemed necessary to serve users, freeing up land for development and making projects financially viable. Using San Francisco as a case study, researchers at the Urbanism Next Center and ECONorthwest explored this idea in depth, modeling the potential impacts that AVs could have on development. To inform our analysis, we first conducted a literature review of modeled/predicted reductions of parking demand based on the deployment of AVs. Efforts to estimate the potential impact of AVs on parking demand have produced varied results ranging from as much as a 90% decrease in demand in some scenarios to an overall increase in demand in others. The inconsistency in results underscores the complexity of the topic and the difficulties that are associated with trying to model future demand. Model results are dependent on the parameters and assumptions made about factors such as fleet mix (e.g., shared vs. individually owned AVs), market penetration/adoption rate, the percentage of rides that are pooled, and more.