School of Planning, Public Policy and Management Faculty Works

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Browsing School of Planning, Public Policy and Management Faculty Works by Author "Gray, Jo Anna"

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    Childbearing, marriage and human capital investment
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-02) Gray, Jo Anna; Stone, Joe A.; Stockard, Jean
    This paper proposes and tests a simple joint explanation for i) increases in marital and nonmarital birth rates in the United States over recent decades, ii) the dramatic rise in the share of nonmarital births, and iii) the pronounced racial differences in the timing of childbearing. The explanation arises from differences across time and race in the attractiveness of marriage and opportunities for investment in human capital. For given preferences, a decline in the marriage rate necessarily causes both the marital and nonmarital birth rates to increase, with no change in the total birth rate. This model exhibits exceptional power in replicating salient features of childbearing behavior. Our results suggest that changes in marital and nonmarital birth rates, as well as in the share of nonmarital births, arose primarily from changes in marriage behavior, not from changes in fertility; and that racial differences in the timing of childbearing reflect early differences in human capital investment.
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    The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births: Fertility Choices or Marriage Behavior?
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-11-01) Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; Stone, Joe A.
    Much of the sharp rise in the share of nonmarital births in the United States has been attributed to changes in the fertility choices of unmarried and married women - in response, it is often argued, to various public policies. In contrast, we develop and test a model that attributes the rise to changes in marriage behavior, with no changes in fertility. A variety of empirical tests strongly supports this conclusion and invites focused attention to issues related to marriage behavior, as well as the interactions between marriage and fertility.
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    A tale of two shares: The relationship between the “illegitimacy” ratio and the marriage share
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-06-11) Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; Stone, Joe A.
    We develop a model of fertility and marriage that implies a magnified effect of marriage rates on the share of births to unmarried women. For U.S. data, plots and regression estimates support the prediction that the share of unmarried births is driven primarily by the square of the share of unmarried women. Our findings suggest that some of the emphasis on changes in fertility behavior in explaining the rising share of births to unmarried women might be productively redirected toward exploring the role and determinants of changes in marriage behavior. Moreover, previous studies of fertility behavior, to the extent that marital status is taken as given, may confound fertility and marriage behavior.
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    Taxes, Government Expenditures, and State Economic Growth: The Role of Nonlinearities
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-06) Bania, Neil; Gray, Jo Anna
    Barro’s (1990) model of endogenous growth implies that economic growth will initially rise with an increase in taxes directed toward “productive” expenditures (e.g., education, highways, and streets), but will subsequently decline. Previous tests of the model, including Barro (1989, 1990) and recently Bleaney et al (2001), focus on whether the linear incremental effect of taxes is positive, negative, or zero, with substantial evidence for all three conclusions. In this study, we test for nonlinearity directly by incorporating nonlinear effects for taxes, and based on U.S. states find that the incremental effect of taxes directed toward productive government expenditures is initially positive, but eventually declines. U.S. states on average appear to under invest in expenditures on productive government activities.