Evans, George W.

Permanent URI for this collection

https://hdl.handle.net/1794/3690

Browse

Browsing Evans, George W. by Subject "Bounded rationality"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-06-22) Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949-; Carlson, John; McGough, Bruce
    This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker’s preferences for price vs. output stability, the learning process can converge to a new equilibrium in which both output and price volatility are lower.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-12-07) Branch, William A.; Carlson, John; Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce
    This paper addresses the output-price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss function that depends on expected forecast errors and information costs. Endogenous inattention is a Nash equilibrium in the information processing rate. Although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility, it indirectly anchors expectations, which decreases output volatility. If the indirect effect dominates then the usual trade-off between output and price volatility breaks down. This provides a potential explanation for the "Great Moderation" that began in the 1980's.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Near-Rational Exuberance
    (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-09-17) Bullard, James; Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951-
    We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic environments. Examples include a simple asset pricing model and the New Keynesian monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgement in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations, but without the requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is locally indeterminate. We suggest ways in which policymakers might avoid unintended outcomes by adjusting policy to minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria.