Magud, Nicolas
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Item Open Access Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-11) Magud, Nicolas; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a "success" and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology-furthermore these are significantly "over-weighted" by a couple of country cases (Chile and Malaysia). In this paper, we attempt to address some of these shortcomings by: being very explicit about what measures are construed as capital controls. Also, given that success is measured so differently across studies, we sought to "standardize" the results of over 30 empirical studies we summarize in this paper. The standardization was done by constructing two indices of capital controls: Capital Controls Effectiveness Index (CCE Index), and Weighted Capital Control Effectiveness Index (WCCE Index). The difference between them lies only in that the WCCE controls for the differentiated degree of methodological rigor applied to draw conclusions in each of the considered papers. Inasmuch as possible, we bring to bear the experiences of less well known episodes than those of Chile and Malaysia. Then, using a portfolio balance approach we model the e®ects of imposing short-term capital controls. We find that there should exist country-specific characteristics for capital controls to be effective. From these simple perspective, this rationalizes why some capital controls were effective and some were not. We also show that the equivalence in effects of price- vs. quantity-capital control are conditional on the level of short-term capital flows.Item Open Access On Asymmetric Business Cycles and the Effectiveness of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-05) Magud, NicolasIn the presence of informational frictions and uncertainty, an investment model is developed to capture the asymmetric dynamics of business cycles. When affected by a negative shock, the economy responds differently than when hit by a positive shock, both in terms of size and recovery length. In this set up, the role for fiscal policy in smoothing the effects of business cycles fluctuations depends on the initial conditions of the economy at the time of the shock: based on the degree of fiscal fragility of the government, expansionary fiscal policy might be expansionary or contractionary in terms of output.Item Open Access Capital Controls: An Evaluation(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-06-02) Magud, Nicolas; Reinhart, Carmen M.The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a “success” and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology—furthermore these are significantly “overweighted” by a couple of country cases (Chile and Malaysia). In this paper, we attempt to address some of these shortcomings by: being very explicit about what measures are construed as capital controls. Also, given that success is measured so differently across studies, we sought to “standardize” the results of over 30 empirical studies we summarize in this paper. The standardization was done by constructing two indices of capital controls: Capital Controls Effectiveness Index (CCE Index), and Weighted Capital Control Effectiveness Index (WCCE Index). The difference between them lies only in that the WCCE controls for the differentiated degree of methodological rigor applied to draw conclusions in each of the considered papers. Inasmuch as possible, we bring to bear the experiences of less well known episodes than those of Chile and Malaysia.Item Open Access Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Country Characteristics: an Empirical Investigation into the Role of Openness(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-10-20) Magud, NicolasIn choosing an exchange rate regime for a small open economy, the common wisdom (Friedman (1953), Meade (1950)) calls for a °oating regime to outperform a peg because of the ability of the former to cope with relative price changes without major output effects. With balance sheet effects in mind, doubts have been raised about it, though. I test for this, using a near VAR approach. The 32 country sample for the period 1980-2001 was split according to the degree of openness of the economy. The results show that for relatively open economies the common wisdom holds; on the contrary, for relatively closed economies it does not. In fact, the evidence documents that to absorb real shock, fixed exchange rate regimes perform better for relatively closed economies, while flexible exchange rate regimes do a better job for relatively open economies.Item Open Access Currency Mismatch, Openness and Exchange Rate Regime Choice(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-09-01) Magud, NicolasThe paper analyzes the choice of an exchange rate regime for a small open economy indebted in foreign currency, incorporating the ¯nancial accelerator. Conventional wisdom suggests that floating regimes should insulate the economy from real shocks. I show that this result depends on the degrees of openness of the economy and foreign currency indebtedness and, in fact, does not hold for relatively closed economies. The transmission mechanism relies on nonlinearities in the impact of unanticipated real price changes on the external finance premium, in the spirit Fisher (1933).