Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning
Datum
2003-10-11
Autor:innen
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Verlag
University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics
Zusammenfassung
The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylor-type interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some specifications of the interest rate rule, raising the possibility of increased economic fluctuations due to a dependence of expectations on extraneous sunspots. Separately, recent work by a number of authors has shown that sunspot equilibria previously thought to be unstable under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In this paper we generalize the common factor technique, used in this analysis, to examine standard monetary models that combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate both lagged and expected inflation in the Phillips Curve, and both expected and inertial elements in the policy rule. We find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises.
Beschreibung
Schlagwörter
Macroeconomics and monetary economics, Search, learning, and information, Macroeconomics and monetary economics, Microeconomics, Monetary policy (Central banking, and the supply of money and credit), Monetary policy (Targets, instruments, and effects), Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles, Business fluctuations, Cycles, Information and uncertainty, Expectations, Speculations