Oregon Research Institute

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Open Access
The Decision to Pollute, No. 4
(Oregon Research Institute, 1973-12) Dawes, Robyn M.; Delay, Jack; Chaplin, William
One way of studying the pollution problem is to examine the decision making process in situations in which gain accrues directly to an individual while loss is spread out across the group of which the individual is a member. Such a situation has been termed a commons dilemma by Lloyd in 1833; it is a variant of the well known prisoner's dilemma. The mathematical model of rational decision making when facing the commons dilemma implies the dismal conclusion that individuals acting rationally will end up destroying, or nearly destroying, the common wealth. Suggestions are made concerning ways in which people may be persuaded not to pollute our environment.
Open Access
Training Mothers of Disruptive Nonreaders In Remedial Skills: A Home Tutoring Program, No. 3
(Oregon Research Institute, 1973-10) Skindrud, Karl
A tutoring program was developed which applies reinforcement principles to the teaching of reading, utilizes linguistically controlled programmed reading material, and is easily administered by parents . Three mothers of disruptive children with reading deficits were trained to use the tutoring program in three to 20 hours of direct supervision. The data from this initial evaluation suggest that (1) parents can be trained to effectively tutor their own disruptive child at home, (2) significant increases in reading skills can interact with contingency management programs in the classroom to reduce otherwise intractable disruptive behavior in a nonreader, and (3) parents of children who perceive their child's reading deficit as severe and bearing on school placement are most likely to maintain the daily home tutoring . A cost-effectiveness comparison is made between the home tutoring program and traditional and innovative remedial tutoring programs. The literature relating reading deficits, classroom behavior and delinquency is briefly reviewed. Further study of the trends noted in this investigation and improvements in the tutoring procedures are recommended.
Open Access
The Commons Dilemma Game: An N-Person Mixed-Motive Game With a Dominating Strategy for Defection, No. 2
(Oregon Research Institute, 1973-09) Dawes, Robyn M.
If individuals were to decide for themselves whether to buy anti-pollution devices for their cars, a commons dilemma would result (Lloyd, 1833; Hardin, 1968). The money saved by not buying the device accrues directly to the individual while the harm done by the resulting pollution is shared equally by all. Moreover, the argument for not buying is independent of others' decisions --because if they do buy, the individual who does not makes no appreciable contribution to pollution, and if they don't the individual who does makes no appreciable contribution to reducing pollution . Yet everyone would prefer to have everyone buy . This paper presents an experimental commons dilemma game that has all the properties of the commons dilemma and that reduces to a prisoner's dilemma game when there are only two players.
Open Access
Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, No. 1
(Oregon Research Institute, 1973-07) Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel
Most important decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events such as the outcome of an election, the guilt of a defendant, or the future value of the dollar. These beliefs are usually expressed in statements such as "I think that ... ", "chances are ... ", "It is unlikely that .. . ", etc. Occasionally, beliefs concerning uncertain events are expressed in a numerical form as odds or subjective probabilities. What determines such beliefs? How do people assess the likelihood of an W1certain event or the value of an uncertain quantity? The theme of the present paper is that people rely on a limited number of heuristic principles by which they reduce the complex tasks of assessing likelihoods and predicting values to simpler judgmental operations. In general, these heuristics are quite useful, but sometimes they leads to severe and systematic errors.
Open Access
Slitting the Decision Maker's Throat with Occam's Razor -- The Superiority of Random Linear Models to Real Judges, No. 13
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972-12) Dawes, Robyn M.
Two types of linear models have been found to be superior to human judges in predicting codable criterion variables from codable predictor variables: actuarial models (based on the regression of the criterion in the predictors), and bootstrapping models (based on the regression of the judges• predictions on the predictors). In both types of models, the predictors are coded (or recoded) so that each bears a monotonic relationship to the criterion; further, in both models, nonlinear relationships and nonmonotone interactions between variables are ignored. Perhaps these linear models are superior because the expected validity of~ linear model whose weights are in the appropriate direction is superior to that of human judges in this context. Present research reviews a variety of situations in which linear models whose weights are in the appropriate direction but otherwise chosen at random do better than do judges , even boots trapped judges.
Open Access
Response-Induced Reversals of Preference in Gambling: An Extended Replication in Las Vegas, No. 6
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972-12) Lichtenstein, Sarah; Slovic, Paul
Previous experiments, studying college students in a laboratory setting , have demonstrated the effects of response mode upon information-processing strategies employed in gambling decisions. The present experiment extended , in a Las Vegas casino, the findings of the previous studies . As in the laboratory , the casino patrons were found to employ different strategies when choosing among pairs of bets than when attaching monetary values to single bets. This behavior led to reversals of preference as a function of response mode . The reversals were found for bets with negative as well as positive expected value . These results suggest a bias due to cue-response compatibility that may have implications for information processing in a variety of decision- making situations .
Open Access
The Effect of Different Types of Feedback in Multiple-Cue Probability Learning, No. 7
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972-04) Castellan, N. John, Jr.
The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of different sorts of feedback upon performance in a multiple-cue probability learning task with binary cues and binary events. In addition to traditional outcome feedback, subjects were given periodic feedback messages throughout the experiment. Different types of feedback included percentage of correct responses, cue-event validity coefficients, cue-response utilization coefficients, and a combination of both of the last two types. Feedback was based upon either all previous trials (long-term feedback) or the last 10 or 20 trial s (short-term feedback) or both. Two different tasks were used. Nine hundred seventy- two subjects were assigned to 32 groups in a 4 (feedback type) by 2 (short- term feedback) by 2 (long-term feedback) by 2 (task) design, and were individually run for 300 non-contingent trials. In general, the results were that no type of feedback enhanced performance, but al l feedback types except percentage correct feedback resulted in a decrement in performance. Long-term and short-term feedback interaction effects were found.
Open Access
Systematic Therapeutic Intervention: An Outline of a Family Treatment Program, No. 2
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972-03) Gallon, Steven L.; Jones, Richard R.
As part of the Social Learning Project at Oregon Research Institute, there has evolved over the past several years a set of procedures which has been systematically applied in the treatment of families of aggressive boys. The therapeutic techniques are based on the body of psychological principles known as social learning theory (e.g., Skinner, 1953; Gewirtz, 1969) . In a classification of clinical therapies , these treatment techniques would be appropriately categorized under the rubric of behavior modification. Heretofore the clinical and research findings from this extensive project have been presented in several monographs ( e . g., Patterson, Cobb, & Ray, 1972; .Patterson, 1969; Patterson, Ray , & Shaw , 1968) which have discussed in varying detail t he actual activities undertaken in the treatment of disturbed families . There ~as not been available , however, in one easily accessible source , a concise outline of the sequence of steps in the treatment process and a description of the activities involved at each stage of family intervention. This report is an attempt to fill this need for an overview of the therapeutic procedures developed in the Social Learning Project . Hopefully , this overview is presented in a manner such t hat the reader can rapidly gain an appreciation for the detail, complexity, and orderliness of these treatment activities.
Open Access
The Comparative Validity of Questionnaire Data (16PF Scales) and Objective Test Data (O-A Battery) in Predicting Five Peer-Rating Criteria: A Brief Report, No. 1
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972-02) Norman, Warren T.; Schwartz, Edward; Goldberg, Lewis R.
Individual differences can be assessed in at least three different media, namely via Life (L) data, Questionnaire (Q) data, or Objective Test (T) data (see Cattell , 1957). The distinction between L-data and Q or T-data is reasonably clear : L- data refers to behavior in situ- -within the ongoing stream of life--while both Q- and T-data are constrained by experimental stimulation or laboratory control . Within the traditional psychometric paradigm, L-data is often assigned the critical role of the dependent variable or the criterion behavior which psychologists seek to predict, and these predictions are typically generated from measures based on either questionnaire or test data. While the field of psychological assessment has become heavily saturated with personality questionnaires and inventories (see Goldberg , 1971) , Cattell has consistently exhorted psychometricians to eschew Q-data and to concentrate on the development of objective personality tests . To this end , Cattell and his associates have constructed a multitude of such tests over the years and have included these measures, plus many devised by other investigators , in a series of factorial studies (see Cattell , 1957; Cattell & Warburton , 1967; Hundleby, Pawlik , & Cattell, 1965 ) . The explicit rationale for this research strategy is the assumption that objective tests eliminate many of the biases which presumably distort questionnaire responses (e .g . , response sets and styles), and consequently that such tests will ultimately provide the most valid measures of important personality traits . By 1955, Cattell had assembled a battery of objective tests, called the Objective- Analytic (0-A) Eighteen Factor Personality Test Battery, which was distributed by the Institute for Personality and Ability Testing (IPAT) as a preliminary research kit . This initial battery was probably not widely disseminated; perhaps because of its limited availability and the relatively high cost of using objective tests as compared to questionnaires, there have been very few reports of studies by investigators outside Cattell 's laboratory comparing the validities of these objective tests with those obtained from questionnaire scales. The present report summarizes the results of one such preliminary comparison . This report, which is not intended for formal publication, is based upon data collected over a decade ago, from a sample of 82 male subjects who were administered a version of the 0-A Battery which included 30 different tests and which yielded 57 different test scores . At the present time, the number of tests cataloged by Cattell and Warburton (1967) numbers over 400 , yielding well over 2 , 000 test scores . Consequently , the results presented in this report must be understood as limited to only a small subset of the total set of objective tests currently available .
Open Access
On the Analytic Decomposition of Rod-And-Frame Test Performance: An Empirical Comparison Between Global and Component Scores, No. 14
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Goldberg, Lewis R.
An analytic schema is presented for decomposing the traditional global accuracy score from the Rod-and-Frame Test into a set of component scores. As a preliminary comparison of the usefulness of these component scores with the traditional composite measure, the data from a study by Hettema (1968) were re-analyzed. A sample of 70 male subjects was used to investigate the linear and nonlinear relationships between 22 RFT scores and scores from the Street Gestalt, Gottschaldt Hidden Figures, PMA Spatial, Hidden Pictures, PMA Reasoning, Muller-Lyer Illusions, Poggendorff Illusions, Peripheral Span, Squares , and Verbal Analogies tests . The RFT global accuracy score was not significantly related to any of these measures. In contrast, an intriguing pattern of significant relationships emerged between various RFT component scores and most of the cognitive and perceptual tests.
Open Access
Metricized Smallest Space Analysis, No. 10
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Horst, Paul
The correlation-attenuating effects of arbitrary and fortuitous metrics in multivariate analysis procedures, together with previous attempts to circumvent these, are discussed. A new procedure utilizes side conditions imposed on reduced rank models and proposes the use of maximum covariance matrices in formulating these conditions. Approximations to the side conditions are developed and the procedures are applied to the binary simplex matrix. Expressions for maximum covariances as functions of relative frequency distributions are developed and special cases are considered.
Open Access
On the Psychology of Prediction, No. 4
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos
A judgmental heuristic--representativeness--is often applied in intuitive predictions. In predicting by representativeness s , one selects or orders outcomes by the degree to which these outcomes represent one's impression of the case, with little or no regard for factors such as the prior probability of outcomes or predictive accuracy. The hypothesis that people predict by representativeness is supported in a series of studies, with both naïve and sophisticated subjects. In nominal prediction, the ran king of outcomes by likelihood is shown to coincide with the ranking of outcomes by representativeness . Numerical predictions are shown to be nonregressive with respect to an evaluation of the impression on which they are based. In both cases, intuitive predictions violate the normative principles of prediction in fundamental ways .
Open Access
A Circuitous Route to Bootstrapping Selection Procedures, No. 9
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Rorer, Leonard G.
In considering personality measurement in medical education, we are interested in measures t hat can be used for some purpose, such as selection , placement, counseling , or program design. If measures are to be useful in this sense , then we must be able to use them to predict something with greater accuracy than we would be able to achieve without them . There are at least two ways to go about improving the accuracy of one's predictions . The first is to improve the measures on the basis of which the predictions are made . Earlier in this conference Jackson ( ) , Stein ( ) , Fiske ( ), and Sechrest ( ) have already suggested ways in which this might be done . The second is to improve the way in which predictions are made on the basis of those measures which are available . It is this second possibility that I am going to discuss . The general logic of what I will say applies to any of the uses that might be made of personality measurements , but , because it is easier to discuss one procedure at a time, I will talk only about selection.
Open Access
The Efficacy of the Spot-Check Procedure in Maintaining the Reliability of Data Collected by Observers in Quasi-Natural Settings: Two Pilot Studies, No. 8
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Reid, John B.; DeMaster, Barbara
Preliminary evaluations of two procedures for the assessment and maintenance of observer reliability were conducted. In the first study, one pair of observers was trained to an acceptable level of reliability and was then told that no further assessment of accuracy would be carried out (no-check procedure). In the second study, two pairs of observers were trained to an acceptable level of reliability and were then told that they would be periodically checked for accuracy and informed when the checks were taking place (spot-check procedure). Actually, the reliability of observers in both. studies was continuously monitored. The results of the studies were as follows: (a) the accuracy of observers in the no-check condition dropped dramatically immediately after the termination of overt assessment; (b) the accuracy of observers in the spot-check condition dropped after initial training and overt assessment but exceeded the training level of reliability during each of the spot-check sessions; and (c) the magnitude of the drop in accuracy was smaller for observers in the spot-check study than for those in the no-check study. On the basis of these results , it was argued that the spot-check procedure for checking and maintaining observer reliability is of questionable validity.
Open Access
The Paramorphic Representation of Clinical Judgement, No. 12
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Hoffman, Paul J.
The primary task of clinical diagnosis is that of collecting , evaluating, and assimilating information with respect to the patient. The starting point is the information itself; this may be in the form of laboratory test results, biographical data, scores on psychological tests, manifest symptoms, or other observables. The end result is a judgment; this may take the form of a recommendation concerning treatment or discharge, a decision that certain other data are necessary before final judgment is made, or a classification of the patient into a diagnostic category. What intervenes between beginning and end is, for each clinician, a quite complex idiosyncratic process . It is the purpose of this paper to demonstrate that the process is capable of rigorous investigation and description.
Open Access
Effects of Instructional Set and Experimenter Influence On Observer Reliability, No. 11
(Oregon Research Institute, 1972) Taplin, Paul S.; Reid, John B.
A laboratory analog of naturalistic observation was used to examine the relationship of observer drift to instructional set and experimenter status. Three instructional sets (no check, random check, and spot check) and two levels of experimenter . status were studied . Results indicated a highly significant decrease in observer reliability coinciding with the shift from training to data collection. This performance decrement was observed in all three instructional set conditions. Within the spot-check condition, reliability on spot-check days was found to be significantly greater than mean reliability immediately before and after spot checks. Further results revealed that observers trained by the high status experimenter performed less reliably than observers trained by the other two experimenters. The possible implications of these results for future observational research, and suggestions for minimizing observer drift were discussed.

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