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  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Ramey, Garey (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2001-11-29)
    A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-11-08)
    We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under private agent learning. Appropriately designed expectations based rules can yield optimal ...
  • Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949-; Carlson, John; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-06-22)
    This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951-; Mitra, Kaushik (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-02-18)
    We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with ...
  • Adam, Klaus; Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-03-17)
    Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized ...
  • Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-11-13)
    This paper advocates a theory of expectation formation that incorporates many of the central motivations of behavioral finance theory while retaining much of the discipline of the rational expectations approach. We provide ...
  • Chakraborty, Avik, 1975-; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-08-28)
    Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are significantly less than ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-03-31)
    Summarizes the Orphanides-Williams argument, locates the paper within the rapidly growing literature on learning and monetary policy, and offers specific comments on natural extensions or alternative approaches.
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Guesnerie, R. (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2001-05-15)
    We investigate local strong rationality (LSR) in a one step forward looking univariate model with memory one. Eductive arguments are used to determine when common knowledge (CK) that the solution is near some perfect ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Guesnerie, R. (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-10-10)
    We examine local strong rationality (LSR) in multivariate models with both forward-looking expectations and predetermined variables. Given hypothetical common knowledge restrictions that the dynamics will be close to those ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951-; Mitra, Kaushik, 1969- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2010-08-04)
    This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-06-23)
    We introduce the E-correspondence principle for stochastic dynamic expectations models as a tool for comparative dynamics analysis. The principle is applicable to equilibria that are stable under least squares and closely ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-04-06)
    We examine the nonlinear model x_t = E_t F(x_(t+1)). Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state, hat(x)=F(hat(x)), provided |F'(hat(x)| > 1. Despite the importance of indeterminancy in macroeconomics, earlier ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-01-14)
    We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the model x_i=beta(Ei*)(x_i+1) when |beat| >1. In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2001-08-03)
    A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2009-07-06)
    We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-07-12)
    Using New Keynesian models, we compare Friedman's k-percent money supply rule to optimal interest rate setting, with respect to determinacy, stability under learning and optimality. First we review the recent literature: ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-09-19)
    We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forwardlooking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-06-03)
    We consider optimal monetary policy in New Keynesian models with inertia. First order conditions, which we call the MJB-alternative, are found to improve upon the timeless perspective. The MJB-alternative is shown to be ...
  • Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-07-25)
    We extend common factor analysis to a multi-dimensional setting by considering a bivariate reduced form consistent with many Real Business Cycle type models. We show how to obtain new representations of sunspots and find ...

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