Evans, George W.: Recent submissions

  • An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-01-11)
    This is the text of an interview with Thomas J. Sargent. The interview will be published in Macroeconomic Dynamics.
  • A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-02-01)
    We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the ...
  • Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2004-03-29)
    We examine existence and stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in a New Keynesian model incorporating inertia. Indeterminacy remains prevalent, stable sunspots abound, and inertia in IS and AS relations do not ...
  • Comment on "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy" by Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams 
    Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-03-31)
    Summarizes the Orphanides-Williams argument, locates the paper within the rapidly growing literature on learning and monetary policy, and offers specific comments on natural extensions or alternative approaches.
  • The E-Correspondence Principle 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-06-23)
    We introduce the E-correspondence principle for stochastic dynamic expectations models as a tool for comparative dynamics analysis. The principle is applicable to equilibria that are stable under least squares and closely ...
  • Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Multivariate Models 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Guesnerie, R. (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-10-10)
    We examine local strong rationality (LSR) in multivariate models with both forward-looking expectations and predetermined variables. Given hypothetical common knowledge restrictions that the dynamics will be close to those ...
  • Friedman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-07-12)
    Using New Keynesian models, we compare Friedman's k-percent money supply rule to optimal interest rate setting, with respect to determinacy, stability under learning and optimality. First we review the recent literature: ...
  • Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable? 
    Adam, Klaus; Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-03-17)
    Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized ...
  • Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-05-16)
    We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification ...
  • Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-04-30)
    We consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active ...
  • Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-10-11)
    The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylor-type interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some ...
  • Stable Noisy K-state Markov Sunspots 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-07-18)
    We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and consider solutions driven by an extraneous finite state Markov process as well as by the fundamental noise. We ...
  • Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-11-08)
    We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under private agent learning. Appropriately designed expectations based rules can yield optimal ...
  • Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-08-03)
    We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by (McCallum 2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary polices proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations ...
  • Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-04-17)
    We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter ...
  • Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-07-25)
    We extend common factor analysis to a multi-dimensional setting by considering a bivariate reduced form consistent with many Real Business Cycle type models. We show how to obtain new representations of sunspots and find ...
  • Monetary policy, expectations and commitment 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-05-22)
    Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approxmiate ...
  • Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-04-06)
    We examine the nonlinear model x_t = E_t F(x_(t+1)). Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state, hat(x)=F(hat(x)), provided |F'(hat(x)| > 1. Despite the importance of indeterminancy in macroeconomics, earlier ...
  • Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-01-14)
    We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the model x_i=beta(Ei*)(x_i+1) when |beat| >1. In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state ...
  • Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Ramey, Garey (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2001-11-29)
    A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. ...

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